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Sustainable development of the shipbuilding industry requires accurate forecasts of vessel demand and strategically grounded planning. However, the shipbuilding and maritime transport sectors have become increasingly complex, influenced by fluctuating global economic conditions, regulatory changes, and a range of market factors. As a result, conventional models are often no longer sufficient for forecasting future demand.

This study aims to develop a forecasting model for container ship demand that reflects the causal relationships underlying the market structure of container shipping. To reproduce fleet dynamics under changing conditions, the model integrates four sub-models: (1) seaborne container cargo volumes, (2) ordering behavior, (3) shipbuilding, and (4) demolition (scrapping). In addition, the model incorporates the fluctuations observed in seaborne container logistics during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The proposed framework enables scenario analysis under various regulatory and market conditions and provides practical insights into future demand trends. Using the developed model, we conduct simulation analyses to examine the impacts of (i) growth in containerized cargo driven by economic expansion and (ii) environmental regulations in international shipping on container ship demand.